南亞觀察導讀｜2025年尼泊爾因長年貪污腐敗、政治不穩定等社會問題，加上對網路使用的限制，透過社群媒體動員，走上街頭要求改革，包括提升政府透明度、打擊貪腐與促進就業機會。這場運動逐漸擴大，形成全國性抗議，並迫使政府讓步，這場運動也被稱做尼泊爾的Z事帶革命。這場社會運動直間接地影響2026年該國的大選局勢，其中前饒舌歌手，同時也是首都加德滿都市長的候選人巴倫德拉．沙阿在極短的時間內，帶領其所屬政黨取得大選決定性的勝利，並且任命了一組高比例青年及女性閣員組成的內閣政府，然而沙阿本身的政治風格以及富具創新的內閣對國際社會及區域政治將帶來何種影響，仍存在不確定性。
著｜烏達布．皮亞庫雷爾博士（Dr. Uddhab Pyakurel），尼泊爾加德滿都大學政治社會學副授。
譯｜南亞觀察。
在長期受到政治不穩定與經濟落後的困擾之後，尼泊爾政治在2026年3月迎來新的局面—巴倫德拉．沙阿（Balendra Shah）成為該國第43任總理。他所屬的政黨全國獨立黨（RSP, Rastriya Swatantra Party）在該國第9次眾議院選舉中以壓倒性勝利取得執政機會。這也是尼泊爾自2025年由年輕人主導、反對貪腐、裙帶關係與菁英統治的抗議運動以來的首次選舉。年僅35歲的沙阿崛起，象徵著尼泊爾、南亞，甚至是全球局勢的一個重要轉變，並傳達出幾個值得關注的訊息。
首先，他在擔任首都加德滿都（Kathmandu）市長僅3年半後，便與全國獨立黨合作，成為該黨的總理候選人，並在3月的大選中取得決定性的勝利。然而他其實是在2026年1月4日才加入全國獨立黨，卻能在如此短時間內帶領該黨選舉贏得大選。
其次，沙阿內閣的成員中，15名部長有10位是40歲以下的年輕人，這樣的組成為南亞年輕族群長期被邊緣化的處境帶來了極大的希望。南亞是全球年輕人口最多的地區，但多數年輕人因制度性的障礙，仍感到自身與發展機會的脫節；在政治層面上，該地區的政治環境長期由年長世代所主導，使年輕人覺得自己的聲音在正式治理中難以被聽見。以國會來說，南亞30歲以下的議員人數本來就相當稀少，而目前尼泊爾內閣中，30歲及以下的成員卻已達20%。
第三，過去南亞各國由女性擔任政府內閣部長職務多半比例偏低，儘管該地區曾出現多位世界知名的女性領袖，包括印度前總理英迪拉．甘地（Indira Gandhi）、巴基斯坦前縱總理班娜姬．布托（Benazir Bhutto）、孟加拉前總理卡莉達．齊亞（Khaleda Zia）與謝赫．哈西娜（Sheikh Hasina），以及斯里蘭卡前總統錢德里卡．庫馬拉通加（Chandrika Kumaratunga）。其中，孟加拉在哈西娜擔任總理期間，內閣女性比例曾達18.2%（截至2024年），然而在2026年2月孟加拉大選後，由塔里克．拉赫曼（Tarique Rahman）領導的新內閣中，50名成員僅有3名女性，創下25年來女性比例新低。
相比之下，尼泊爾這次內閣中女性比例達33%（15名部長中有5位女性），如此高女性內閣比例在南亞歷史上也創下新高。除了上述三點之外，沙阿也成為首位來自馬德西族（Madhesi）的總理，這在該國國家政治上具有歷史性意義。馬德西族群約佔全國人口近20%，是尼泊爾的少數民族，長期以來在政治上被邊緣化，而且過去該族裔也從未有人擔任過總理職務。
因此，以上各項變化，對於長期感受到被忽視與疏離的南亞人民與各族群而言，都是非常強而有力且具啟發性的正面訊號。
不過，那些曾在加德滿都大都會市長任內認識沙阿的人，也對他偏向「不善協作」的決策風格提出了一些疑慮。回顧他過去擔任市長期間，他曾被批評有「傾向在缺乏廣泛諮詢的情況下做出決策」，並且不太給予不同意見者發揮的空間。此外，他也被認為未積極推動與周邊地方政府的區域合作。因此，在跨國的區域合作層面上，他未來是否會採取更具協商性的作風，仍有待南亞各界持續觀察。
在外交政策以及與鄰國關係方面，一般認為總理沙阿對尼泊爾的南方鄰國－印度－具有務實且良好的理解。這樣的推測，部分來自於他的在地身分—他是來自尼泊爾與印度邊境馬霍塔里（Mahottari）地區的馬德西族人，同時也因為他曾在印度卡納塔卡（Karnataka）接受高等教育，因此對印度有一定程度的互動與了解。
然而，曾經看過他在加德滿都市長辦公室中展示「大尼泊爾」地圖的人，對他在對鄰國（包括印度）立場上的態度，仍存有疑慮；一些尼泊爾民眾認為，那張地圖只是一次象徵性的抗議行動；但也有人認為，這可能是他為了爭取民族主義選民支持所採取的一種策略。
同樣地，沙阿在2023年8月擔任尼泊爾首都市長期間，曾在最後一刻取消原訂訪問中國的行程。當時他原本受中國政府邀請，計畫前往北京進行觀光推廣與文化交流，但他在行前卻透過社群媒體發文宣布取消行程。此舉肇因於中國政府當時發布的一份與周邊國家的新地圖，而這張地圖與尼泊爾最新的政治地圖並不一致。
該地圖將部分具爭議的尼泊爾領土標示為印度的一部分。同時，中國發布的地圖也將印度的阿魯納查邦（Arunachal Pradesh）與具爭議的阿克賽欽（Aksai Chin）劃入其領土，導致尼泊爾地圖中原本明顯突出的區域消失。
此外，也有報導指出，在沙阿領導下的加德滿都大都會市政府（KMC, Kathmandu Metropolitan City），曾拒絕中國大使館的請求，不僅不同意在當地商業及觀光中心－泰美爾（Thamel）地區－舉辦2025年的中國新年慶祝活動，也拒絕由市政府擔任該活動共同主辦單位的提案。
有傳聞指出沙阿與美國的關係密切。然而他在2025年11月曾發布一則帶有攻擊性的Facebook貼文（數日後即刪除），內容以粗俗言語點名美國、印度、中國以及其他多個國家、國際行為者等，引發外界對其外交手腕的廣泛討論，也讓人質疑他是否偏向某一強權。
由於這是一個由許多新面孔組成的新政府，其中一種說法認為，它不必延續過去世代既有的外交政策框架，包括與中國與美國的關係，以及與印度的整體互動模式。在這些疑慮之中，新任外交部長希希爾．卡納爾（Shishir Khanal）於2026年3月27日上任時的發言，為外界提供了一定程度的定調。他明確表示：「即使政府更替或部長更換，國家的外交政策也不會改變。」
卡納爾進一步說明，尼泊爾的外交政策已明確寫入憲法，這涉及國家主權、領土完整與國家利益等核心議題。長期以來，尼泊爾一直採取不結盟的外交政策，而這一方針未來也將持續維持。
總結而言，尼泊爾在經歷2025年9月青年起義後，雖然帶來一些新的開始，但同時也伴隨著挫折與悲觀，以及希望與樂觀並存的複雜情緒。事實上，尼泊爾的年輕人為了實現發展與民主的目標，付出了巨大的代價，走上街頭抗爭，而這個政府別無選擇，必須將這些訴求轉化為具體成果。
既然尼泊爾青年是為了自由、透明與民主而站出來，政府就必須提升尼泊爾的經濟繁榮程度，同時維持其作為南亞最具活力民主國家的地位。此外，採取一種平衡的外交策略、避免過度的民族主義，才能真正幫助國家朝正確的方向持續前進。
原文
After a long-standing concern of ‘political instability’, and economic backwardness, Nepali politics took a new shape appointing Balendra Shah as the 43th Prime Minister in March 2026. He took over the power after a landslide victory in the country’s 9th democratic election. It is the first election since 2025 youth-led protests against corruption, nepotism and elite rule. The 35-year-old Shah’s rise marks an important shift in Nepal, South Asia, and even in the world with a few noticeable messages.
Firstly, he, after just three-and a half-year as mayor of the capital, Kathmandu, teamed up with the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) as its prime-ministerial candidate, scoring a decisive victory in general elections this month. He, who joined the RSP party only on the 4th of January 2026, is the one who could lead such a victorious election within the very short span of time. Second, Shah’s Babine with ten out of 15 ministers are young people under 40 years of age, has created a great hope for the youth in South Asia against their marginalized feelings. It is the region that holds the world’s largest youth population, but the majority of them feel disconnected from opportunity due to systemic barriers. As far as politics is concerned, the region is traditionally dominated by older generations, leaving youth feeling their voices are unheard in formal governance. As there are only a few Members of Parliament who are under the age of 30 in South Asia, the current cabinet of Nepal have 20 percent members of age 30 and below.
Third, South Asia used to be the region with underrepresentation of women in ministerial positions even if it witnessed some of the world’s most notable female prime ministers and presidents, including Indira Gandhi (India), Benazir Bhutto (Pakistan), Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina (Bangladesh), and Chandrika Kumaratunga (Sri Lanka). It was Bangladesh which had 18.2 percent women cabinet members under Sheikh Hasina as prime minister until 2024, but the Tarique Rahman-led cabinet after the February 2026 Bangladeshi general election included only three women among its 50 members, making a 25-year low in female representation. Nepal, this time, ensures 33 percent (5 out of 15 ministers) women in the cabinet, the highest ever in the history of South Asia as far as women’s representation in the apex government body is concerned. Apart from all three mentioned before, Shah has become the first Prime Minister from the Madhesi community, marking a historic shift in national politics. The Madhesi, with almost 20 percent of the population, was a community that experienced an important feeling of political marginalization, as none of members of that community have historically led Nepal holding the post of premiership. Thus, all indicators are very strong and inspiring factors for South Asian people and communities who have had a sense of marginalization and alienation.
Those who knew Shah as Mayor of Metropolitan Kathmandu have shared some concerns on his way of ‘non-collaborative’ decision-making and actions. Remembering his previous tenure as mayor, he was criticized for having a “penchant for making decisions without wider consultation” and not leaving much room for opposing views. As he was considered a mayor not to promote regional collaboration with surrounding local governments, South Asia has to wait and see how consultative he will be as far as regional cooperation is concerned.
On the issue of foreign policy, and neighborhood relations, one could assume that Prime Minister Shah has a good and pragmatic understanding about Nepal’s southern neighbor. The assumption is based on his local identity as the Madhesi of the bordering Mahottari district of Nepal-India, and his interaction with India as he earned his higher education degree from Karnata, India. But those who witnessed a map of “Greater Nepal” in the office of the Mayor of Kathmandu, which Shah installed, are not certain about his stand on neighbors, including India. Some Nepali people cite the map and express that it was a one-time symbolic protest, while others believe that it was his strategy to garner support of ‘nationalist’ Nepali voters.
Likewise, he was Balendra Shah who did a last minute cancellation of his visit to China in August 2023 as Mayor of the capital city of Nepal. Balendra was scheduled to go to Beijing for tourism promotion and cultural exchange at the invitation of the Chinese government, but it was cancelled by him posting a note in social media. The concern was on the latest map released by the Chinese government that was not align with Nepal’s new political map. Instead, it depicts ‘disputed’ Nepali territory as part of India. It was the map released by China that includes India’s Arunachal Pradesh and the disputed Aksai Chin area in its territory, making the pointed spur of the Nepal map notably absent. It is also reported that the Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC), under the leadership of Balendra Shah had declined the Chinese Embassy’s request not only to organize a Chinese New Year celebration, 2025 in Thamel area but also a proposal for KMC to be as a co-organizer for the event.
There are rumours to show Mr. Shah as a close ally of the United States of America. However, an offensive social media (Facebook) post of Mr. Shah that was released in last November (2025) and was also deleted in few days, named India, China, and several other international actors with accompanying profane language, led to several public debates over his diplomatic approach and speculated closeness of any major powers. Being a new government with lot many new faces, one of the narratives is such that it has no compulsion to inherit the old foreign policy understandings of the past generations including its ties with China and the U.S., as well as the overarching relationship with India. Amidst all these concerns, a statement by the newly appointed Foreign Minister under the Shah cabinet, Mr. Shishir Khanal during his assumption of office at the ministry on March 27, 2026, made it clear that “there will be no change in the country’s foreign policy even if the government changes or a new minister comes.” According to Minister Khanal, Nepal’s foreign policy is clearly mentioned in the constitution itself, and this is a matter related to Nepal’s sovereignty, geographical integrity, and national interests. Nepal has been continuously adopting a non-aligned foreign policy for a long time and this will be continued.
To conclude, Nepal has no choice but to offer frustration or pessimism together with the optimism of those who witnessed a few new beginnings after the September 2025 youth uprising. In fact, the youth of Nepal had to make a great sacrifice by being in the street in order to achieve the development and democracy related goals, and this government has no choice except to translate those concerns to a reality. Since the youth were in the street for freedom, transparency, and democracy, this government has to upgrade Nepal’s status as an economically prosperous and also retain the position of Nepal as the most vibrant democracy in South Asia. And a balanced diplomacy, against overt nationalism, only help the country to move forward towards the direction.
